The IEM Cologne 2026 Major is set to start on June 2, with Stage 1 starting three weeks of Counter-Strike action, which will end with the first Major champion crowned at the Lanxess Arena in a decade.
Stage 1 is always the least predictable part of any Major, with Best of 1 contests starting the biggest tournament of the Counter-Strike calendar, so Insider Gaming has a look at who is likely to progress to Stage 2.
The opening matches for the IEM Cologne 2026 Major are:
- GamerLegion vs NRG
- B8 vs TYLOO
- Heroic vs Sharks
- BetBoom vs Gaimin Gladiators
- BIG vs Liquid
- M80 vs Lynn Vision
- MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Sinners vs FlyQuest
Who will progress to Stage 2 of the IEM Cologne 2026 Major?
3-0 Predictions: GamerLegion & BetBoom
GamerLegion is one of the most in-form teams in the world, believe it or not. The roster has only lost to NAVI or Vitality since returning to the Tier 1 sphere at BLAST Fort Worth, losing once to Vitality at that event, and losing three times to NAVI at BLAST, and IEM Atlanta, where they finished second.
Under Janusz ‘Snax’ Pogorzelski, GamerLegion’s rifling core of Fredrik ‘REZ’ Sterner, Oldřich ‘PR’ Nový, and Sebastian ‘Tauson’ Lindelof seem to be back to their best, but what is even better is that AWPer Milan ‘hypex’ Polowiec has blossomed into a clutching star in their North American event swing.
In that time, the roster has defeated Furia, Astralis (twice), Sinners, Liquid, paiN, and CAC 2026 Champions Legacy. Overall, that list of teams far outweighs the threat that Stage 1 should pose.
BetBoom doesn’t have quite the same form, but showed an excellent level in the Cologne qualification run-in, defeating G2, Heroic, and GamerLegion on the way to securing enough VRS points to make the Major.
At IEM Atlanta, the roster upset Vitality, displaying controlled chaos to leave Vitality uncomfortable on the server. Despite losing in the Semis and the Third/Fourth place decider, the roster’s results show they can go deeper in the event than just Stage 1.
Notably, BetBoom defeated B8 2-1 in their opening match at IEM Atlanta. Depending on other results, the two may meet again in the 2-0 matchups in Stage 1.
3-1 Predictions: B8, mibr, Heroic
B8 feels like a fairly safe bet to make Stage 2 of the major after a season that has seen the roster have several relatively positive finishes in Tier 1, making the playoffs of CAC and PGL Bucharest 2026.
The roster has fully recovered from the unexpected departure of Danyyl ‘headtr1ck’ Valitov, and while Danylo ‘s1zzi’ Vinnyk’s level is still in question, the team’s overall level is largely not.
mibr comes into the Major as one of the most in-form Stage 1 teams, after a 4th place finish at the CS Asia Championships. The roster’s semi-international experiment also saw them reach the playoffs of PGL Bucharest, but most importantly, they still have star rifler Felipe ‘insani’ Yuji to carry them when times get tough.
Heroic initially pulled off some strong showings after the unfortunate benching of Älımjan ‘Alkaren’ Bıtımbai due to persistent Visa issues. With Simon ‘yxngstxr’ Boije AWPing, the team has beaten Monte, Parivision, NIP, and Aurora.
However, PGL Astana 2026 was a worrying result for the roster, losing to Gentle Mates and magic, teams the roster should be beating as Major qualifiers. They still seem strong enough to go through, but are not as definite as they once were.
3-2 Predictions: BIG, M80, Liquid
There’s a lot to appreciate about BIG. The roster has enjoyed a rebirth under ambitious signing Benjamin ‘blameF Bremer, with AWPer Gleb ‘gr1ks’ Gazin also recapturing some of the potential that saw him move to Heroic.
The main issue with BIG is their lack of Tier 1 credentials, largely taking the easiest possible route to the Major through local LANs. Are wins against 100 Thieves, magic, and Sharks enough to show that they can sneak them into Stage 2? Possibly…
M80 has looked a shadow of their 2025 selves for much of the year, with defeat to Liquid at IEM Atlanta encapsulating the roster’s fall from NA supremacy. Still, the roster’s DraculaN Season 6 win saw them beat Liquid, Aurora, and Monte on their way to the Major. If M80 can tap into some of what makes them tick, they should make Stage 2.
The final spot may come down to a toss-up between TYLOO and Liquid. TYLOO usually save their best for the Major, though that did not materialize in Budapest. This time around, the roster is not even dominant in their region, but still has shown some potential, defeating MOUZ in a Bo1 at CAC.
For Liquid, the roster seems so hopeless and devoid of life. Changes will surely come to the team, who are only at the Major due to a change of region back to NA, but with Roland ‘ultimate’ Tomkowiak performing better at CAC, Liquid only need a rifler or two to come online to make Stage 2.
Despite all the misgivings about this languishing Liquid roster, and despite all the instincts of this writer, Liquid seem like they might just be able to put three wins together and progress.
Who will bomb out?
0-3 Predictions: THUNDER dOWNUNDER & FlyQuest
It has become somewhat of a meme to pick the Australian team to go 0-3 in the Pick’Ems just for them to get a win or two and ruin people’s chances of getting the Diamond Coin.
There are two Aussie teams at the IEM Cologne Major, so that’s either twice the opportunity to be right about a 0-3 pick, or twice the opportunity to have your Pick’Ems ruined.
It may surprise a few readers to learn that THUNDER dOWNUNDER are the higher VRS-ranked roster of the two, but have achieved that largely by farming Australian events.
As for FlyQuest, the roster has put more money into playing Asian events, also taking part in DracuLan Season 5. Those events have, without exception, been failures to one degree or another, recently losing to lowly ranked rosters 5star and JiJieHao to come 9th-12th at the Hero Esports Asian Champions League.
The Australian teams seem relatively weak in comparison to EU, NA, and even Asian rosters at the Major, making them a natural choice for 0-3 records at the IEM Cologne 2026 Major.
Let us know who you think will progress from Stage 1 on Insider Gaming’s Discord!
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Darragh is an Esports Journalist for Insider Gaming specialising in Counter-Strike. He loves to explore how esports teams work, or why they very often do not.
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