Before we get into it, know that this is the projection of one University economics professor. However, they are likely one of the best people on the planet to talk about why Grand Theft Auto 6 could be a monumental money-spinner in more ways than one.
There’s very little left to say about GTA 6. We’ve seen it, sometimes more than was intended, thanks to CYBERLEEK, heard it, and now we all want it. An analyst believes that the hype for the game could be somewhat detrimental to the US economy.
Don’t take this prediction verbatim, as there are far too many variables on the table, and the notion that millions of people are going to simultaneously take the day off to play Grand Theft Auto 6 could be a huge overestimation.
‘The Billion-Dollar Sick Day’ Because of GTA 6
The International Business Times provided some fascinating insight into GTA 6 release day in America, delivered by Pompeu Fabra University economics professor José GarcÃa Montalvo.
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The analyst says it’s an ‘academic projection,’ but they don’t think the impact and result will be too far wrong.
According to IBT, Montalvo said:
‘Montalvo bases the figure on roughly 1.5 million absences and an average yearly output of about $70,000 (£51,900) per US worker, landing on a short-term productivity dip of around 2%. Men aged 18 to 30 make up most of the missing workers, and the technology sector looks set to take the hardest hit. Even employees who clock in may add to the drag, with launch-week chatter, late-night sessions, and streams pulling focus across offices.
Here is the twist most coverage misses. The $1 billion America stands to lose almost exactly matches what the game’s publisher expects to earn. Take-Two Interactive chief executive Strauss Zelnick told shareholders the company expects more than $1 billion in operating cash flow this fiscal year, with GTA 6 the main driver. In other words, the money does not disappear. It moves from US employers, who lose a day of labour, to Take-Two and Rockstar Games, who bank the sales that same week.
In other words, the money does not disappear. It moves from US employers, who lose a day of labour, to Take-Two and Rockstar Games, who bank the sales that same week. There is a further catch for the US. Rockstar North, the lead studio behind the game, is based in Edinburgh. Much of the windfall therefore flows to the UK even as American workplaces absorb the loss.
The split leaves an awkward result. US firms carry the cost, while the biggest rewards land on the other side of the Atlantic. The sums are large. Market research firm Newzoo estimates GTA 6 could sell at least 37 million copies in its opening week, with global first-week retail bookings running as high as $4.5 billion (£3.3 billion). Newzoo also pegged the opening pre-order week alone at around $260 million (£192 million) globally.
Again, these are all loose projections, and there are numerous factors that could change between now and launch, and actual release day itself.
You can bet there will be plenty of planned and unauthorized absences on November 19, but will it have the impact José GarcÃa Montalvo has theorized?
It begs the question: Will YOU be taking time off to play GTA 6? Let us know your thoughts on the Insider Gaming Discord server.
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Andy is Insider Gaming's Senior Evergreen Editor and has been in the games journalism sphere in one way or another for over 7 years. His video game taste is as…
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