Many people are being turned off from Black Ops 7 at the beta stage due to the game’s seemingly crushing Skill-Based Matchmaking (SBMM) mechanics. This has been a sticking point for the Call of Duty franchise for the longest time, and typically, it feels punishing on the average player, even if they dominate the lobby in as little as one match.
In response to the latest update to the Black Ops 7 beta that introduced the Open Moshpit playlist, Charlie Olson, CEO of Invokation and former creator of Raven Software’s MMR algorithms, explained the flaw behind Treyarch’s logic in the SBMM world.
Apples, Oranges, Call of Duty, XDefiant
XDefiant was given a nod by Charlie Olson, who we sat down with earlier this year to get the inside scoop on everything SBMM and MMR. Olson once spent a decade working at Raven Software, and his MMR algorithms made up the crux of Call of Duty’s SBMM model, starting with 2016’s Infinite Warfare.
He founded Invokation Games in 2022 and has been providing ranking systems and custom skill-rating functions to developers ever since.
The XDefiant reference comes from a comparison between Treyarch and Ubisoft’s Mark Rubin, executive producer on XDefiant, and how the two parties handled the ‘math’ behind Skill-Based Matchmaking.
As Olson explained on LinkedIn:
Ironically, Treyarch made the same mathematical fallacy in the BO7 Patch Notes that Mark Rubin made with XDefiant:
“In Open Moshpit, skill consideration is drastically reduced when matchmaking, with the goal of providing more varied match experiences and outcomes. This playlist will match players with and against players of more varied skill differences than in the current Multiplayer matchmaking system.”
It might be counterintuitive, but contrary to Treyarch’s assumptions, random matchmaking actually leads to *less* varied match experiences and outcomes, not more. The more varied the skill differences, the less varied the outcomes. This isn’t an opinion or a byproduct of player psychology, it’s just statistical reality.
Olson went into the numbers and facts: “If you are a 90th percentile player in the general population, your expected outcome on average without SBMM is… 90%. There will be a larger variety of skills within the match, but your experience will be consistent: you will almost always be one of the two best players in the match and therefore a top performer.”
Ultimately, Olson predicts that Treyarch will not see the results it’s after with the Open Moshpit playlist, and instead, it’ll see ‘heavy self-selection’. He surmises that low-skilled players will actively avoid selecting the playlist, while anyone going into the fray to pubstomp will come away disappointed.
What’s the solution, then?
Olson suggested that Call of Duty’s developers should introduce a transparent function that allows players to check their MMR in their combat record, making SBMM easier to understand and quantify. Also, higher skills should be ‘rewarded’ in-game with higher-skilled lobbies and XP multipliers for said tiers.
Put simply, the better you are, the more you play with better players, but the more rewards you get for doing so.
In June, Ubisoft’s XDefiant, which was once dubbed a ‘Call of Duty killer’, was taken offline forever after several critical failings. It was revealed ahead of launch in 2024 that the game’s casual playlists would have no SBMM mechanics, which Ubisoft said was ‘paramount to a fun and varied game experience.’
That’s partly what Olson was referring to above.
Next week, Battlefield 6 will be released, and that’s the big competitor to Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 this year. It was noted a while ago that Battlefield 6 will factor skill into the mix when matchmaking players with one another, but it won’t be ‘heavy-handed’ as a solution.
Do you think Call of Duty needs to step back and evaluate where it is with SBMM, or is it perfect for you? Let me know on the Insider Gaming Discord server.
For more Insider Gaming coverage, check out what the former FTC chair had to say about the Game Pass hike
Grant has been gaming for 30+ years and in the industry for 10+. You'll probably find him playing a post-apocalyptic game or an extraction shooter somewhere.
More from Grant Taylor-Hill
They need to remove the focus on the last 5 games. That part creates this yoyo effect of SBMM that does punish doing well. Back in the BO3 days when we had a Lobby Leaderboard my buddies and I could look at the SPM and KD ratio of players in the lobby from the prior month and do a better job of self managing SBMM than the current method does. I’d love to see them remove the last 5 games from the equation and see how it plays out. Most likely delivers a more consistent and competitive experience.