Storied Ukrainian org Natus Vincere is at risk of missing out on a Counter-Strike Major for the first time in their history following a dismal run of form that has seen their season start with three early exits at EWC, BLAST Porto, and now StarLadder Season 20.
The roster fell to a 2-1 defeat against MOUZ at StarLadder, condemning the team to a joint last-place exit at the tournament.
NAVI’s VRS picture darkens as PGL Singapore Major looms
The Ukrainian organization ultimately decided not to make a change to their Counter-Strike roster after a series of discussions broke down during the player break.
While willing to make a change in the offseason, after missing out on their initial targets, it was evaluated that the team would perform better without the disruption a change brings.
That evaluation has been brought into serious question after NAVI’s start to their season saw a humbling 9-13, 2-13 EWC exit to Legacy, a 9th-12th finish at BLAST Open Porto, and now a last-place finish at the eight-team StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026.
The result of their poor form, combined with the choice not to play events like BLAST Bounty Season 2 and Fissure Playground 3, means that NAVI are now under significant threat of missing the Major.
VRS expert Finn ‘Mischief’ Farrer now gives NAVI a 62.7% chance of making the Major based on his simulations. For context, NAVI started the season with an over 99% chance of doing so according to the same metric, starting from a strong place in the VRS ranking.
That strong position came from a season where NAVI were, for large parts, the second-best team in Tier 1 Counter-Strike, winning EPL Season 22 and IEM Atlanta 2026 before a disappointing Major exit saw them miss the Playoffs at Cologne.
Now NAVI are set to fall out of Tier 1 entirely, with VRS expert Jesper ‘Udknud’ Larsen expecting NAVI to sit 25th in the VRS ranking for the October 5th ranking update, a position which would see the team miss out on several big event invites.
The threat of missing out on Tier 1 invites evokes several popular organizations that have collapsed into competitive obscurity over the years, condemned to Tier 2 LANs and online qualifiers.
Most recently, it echoes FaZe’s failure to make the IEM Cologne Major, fitting as NAVI and FaZe were so often rivals at their peaks.
However, for NAVI fans, an organization that has stood the test of time for so long, it is reflecting on their old rivals that they may hold their deepest fears.
Fnatic, NiP, Astralis; all of these names were once at the very top of Counter-Strike, not just for a moment but for competitive generations, but are now competitively irrelevant.
NAVI must find a way to avoid the same fate as the November 2 VRS deadline looms for the PGL Singapore 2026 Major.
Asked about a potential roster change after their exit to Legacy at EWC 2026, NAVI coach Andrii ‘B1ad3’ Horodenskyi told Insider Gaming, “The first three tournaments, let’s see how it goes and what it will bring us.“
They have effectively brought NAVI nothing. Does a roster change loom?
Should NAVI make a roster change immediately? Share your thoughts with us on the Insider Gaming Discord.
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Darragh is an Esports Journalist for Insider Gaming specialising in Counter-Strike. He loves to explore how esports teams work, or why they very often do not.
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